Will we remain within the first carbon budget?

Brian Ó Gallachóir, Associate Vice President of Sustainability at UCC, examines where Ireland stands with respect to meeting its climate ambitions.

There was a lot of positivity surrounding the enactment of climate legislation in 2021, the cross-party political support for statutory carbon budgets in 2022 and the associated sectoral emissions ceilings. As we approach the end of 2025, marking the close of the first carbon budget period, it is timely to ask how are we doing?

The Oireachtas approval of carbon budgets in 2022 provided Ireland with a limit for total greenhouse gas emissions over the five year period 2021-2025 of 295 MtCO2e. The year 2025 is not yet complete and finalised data will not be available until March 2027. However, we do have indications at this stage that we are likely to exceed the first carbon budget by about 10 million tonnes (or 3 per cent). This compares with projections carried out at the time the carbon budgets were agreed, indicating we were on track to miss the carbon budget by 40 million tonnes (or 13 per cent).

At a MaREI Centre event in June 2025 at the ESRI, I asked the audience by how much they expected we would miss our first carbon budget. The overwhelming majority (86 per cent) felt we would miss the target by more than 5 per cent. More than 60 per cent of those attending thought we would exceed the budget by over 15 per cent!

Putting to one side the level of pessimism that exists regarding our chances of remaining within the carbon budget, how did we manage to close the gap and come to within 3 per cent?

Each sector tells its own story here.

In electricity, the sectoral ceiling for 2021-2025 is 40 million tonnes and we are likely to be very close to this, with the growth in electricity imports playing a huge role. The emissions benefits from growth in wind and solar was largely offset by increasing electricity demand from data centres.

We are also very close to remaining within the 36 million tonnes ceiling for residential and non-residential buildings, where retrofitting and rooftop solar have made a significant contribution.

In agriculture we are likely to end up just below the 106 million tonnes ceiling. Reduced fertiliser use helped here, although we would have exceeded the ceiling but for the improved revisions to the inventory data mean that resulted in about 7 million tonnes being subtracted from our data that was not envisaged at the time the ceiling was agreed.

Transport and industry are where we are on track to exceed the 54 million tonnes and 30 million ceilings respectively. For transport this is despite the growth in EVs, active travel, and public transport. Decarbonising cement is the big challenge in industry.

There can be a tendency in the climate discourse to focus on the challenges we face and neglect the achievements that we accomplish. While we do face significant challenges in meeting our second carbon budget, getting so close to the first carbon budget does indicate we are making some progress and this should not be overlooked.