The case for nuclear

Earlier this year, I was invited to speak to the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly on the possible role of nuclear power generation in long-term energy security in Ireland.

It is a relevant and recurring question and one that elicits a range of responses, from excitement to anger, but at its core, it is about uncertainty.

For context, Ireland’s power system is one of the most natural gas-dependent power systems in northwest Europe, and gas prices in Europe are the primary driver of high electricity bills in Ireland and a core challenge for affordability, climate pollution, and energy security.

All options that could accelerate Ireland’s shift away from natural gas should be explored and uncertainties understood.

Small modular reactors are one such potential option that may become available in the next number of decades. Both China and Russia have explored this technology, but more recently the Canadian Government has started to build one project in Ontario, with a plan to connect it to the grid by the end of 2030.

It is not possible to know what the future of this technology will mean for Ireland, but it is possible to understand what would need to happen for it to be an option for us.

The viability of small modular reactors becoming an option for Ireland is likely contingent on the following events happening, noting that many of these criteria are similar for hydrogen and other competing technologies to deliver firm power:

1. the technology will need to become commercially available so utilities can consider it for investment;
2. the technology will need to develop a track record of reliable operation across multiple units for multiple years so utilities can have confidence in operating it;
3. the cost of the technology would need to be competitive from a systems perspective with renewable energy/storage so investors can make a profit from it; and
4. the development of nuclear power in Ireland would need social and political support so we can build it, live near it, and we must also develop a competent authority to manage it.

People should form their own views on these timelines and likelihoods.

In my view, countries like Ireland should watch and follow developments in nuclear technology over the coming decades but should not wait for it.

The possibility of a technology that may become available 10 or 20 years in the future should not become a distraction from the urgent work required over the next two to seven years. Because using the technologies here and available now, we still need to reduce Ireland’s dependence on natural gas and replace it with commercially available renewable energy sources while building infrastructure to modernise our power grid, giving it the flexibility and resilience that is required.

If we cannot build wind farms and power lines in this decade, then the likelihood of building nuclear power plants in the next is unlikely.