New Flexibility Needs Assessment supports a renewable-led electricity system

John Melvin, Director Security of Supply and Wholesale Markets at the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU), discusses Ireland’s first national Flexibility Needs Assessment (FNA).

The CRU has published Ireland’s first national FNA which analyses how much flexibility the electricity system is likely to need in 2028 and 2030, and identifies the market, regulatory, and operational issues that could make it harder to deliver this level of flexibility.

Ireland’s transition to renewable electricity depends on more wind and solar generation, supported by a flexible grid that can respond to where and when electricity is produced and needed.

Why flexibility matters

Grid flexibility is becoming increasingly important as Ireland uses more renewable electricity. It allows the electricity system to adapt quickly when supply or demand changes; in particular when wind and solar generation varies with the weather and time of day.

For electricity customers, flexibility is important because it can help Ireland make better use of renewable electricity, ease pressure on the grid, and support a secure, efficient electricity system.

Flexibility will not remove the need to invest in the electricity grid, but it can help the system make better use of existing and future infrastructure.

A new European requirement

CRU’s Flexibility Needs Assessment is part of a new EU-wide approach to understanding how electricity systems will need to adapt in the years ahead. Across the EU, member states are now required to assess the level of flexibility their electricity systems are likely to need over the next decade.

The assessment uses a common methodology developed and approved by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). This allows Ireland’s findings to be compared with those from other European states, while reflecting the particular needs of the Irish electricity system.

The CRU led the assessment in collaboration with EirGrid and ESB Networks, which provided the technical analysis. The CRU also worked closely with the Utility Regulator in Northern Ireland, given the all-island electricity system and the Single Electricity Market.

What the FNA analyses

The FNA establishes where, when, and how much flexibility Ireland’s electricity system is likely to need in the years ahead. It looks at:

• network needs, including local congestion and voltage management challenges;
• how much flexibility may be needed, and when;
• existing and potential sources of flexibility;
  market, regulatory, and operational barriers that could slow down the use of flexibility resources; and
• the role flexibility can play in supporting Ireland’s 2027 indicative national objective for non-fossil flexibility.

Key findings

The FNA shows that flexibility is needed:

• to manage surplus renewable generation across the electricity system and transmission network; and
• at distribution level it is needed to address local capacity constraints.

Flexibility can help the grid work more efficiently, but it will not remove the need for investment in the network. Flexibility needs may be met through explicit flexibility products and more efficient market arrangements which strengthen signals and enable flexible resources to respond to system needs.

Flexibility needs can be met by a wide range of sources including demand-side resources, energy storage, flexible generation, distributed energy resources capable of adjusting generation or consumption, including shifting consumption.

Not all needs must be met, it is unlikely to be economic to meet all identified needs, and some residual renewable dispatch down is expected to remain. Market, regulatory, and operational barriers to flexibility still exist, although good progress is already being made to enable and support flexibility.

The methodology is not perfect, the assessment also identified challenges in applying the ACER methodology using existing modelling frameworks and in aligning European methodology requirements with Single Electricity Market-specific operational arrangements and processes.

These issues will be considered further to support potential improvements in future iterations of the FNA.

“As renewable generation increases, flexibility will be needed to manage periods when output exceeds demand and when network constraints limit the transport of electricity to where it is needed.”

Supporting renewable energy integration

One of the most significant findings from the assessment is the growing importance of flexibility in supporting renewable energy integration. As renewable generation increases, flexibility will be needed to manage periods when output exceeds demand and when network constraints limit the transport of electricity to where it is needed.

The FNA shows that dispatch down is driven by surplus renewable generation, operational constraints, and network congestion. It also shows that some renewable electricity may still need to be reduced at times, where this is the most efficient way to run the electricity system.

The FNA supports Ireland’s work to decarbonise the electricity system while maintaining security of supply and value for customers. By identifying needs early, Ireland can better understand where market arrangements, operational measures, network development, and targeted flexibility products may be required.

Next steps

The Flexibility Needs Assessment will inform future decisions on policy, regulation, markets, and how flexibility services are developed. One of the next steps will be setting Ireland’s indicative national objective for non-fossil flexibility in 2027. The CRU will continue to work with EirGrid, ESB Networks, and the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment to build the evidence needed to support that work.

This assessment is also the start of an ongoing process. It will be updated at least every two years, with the next assessment expected to begin in 2027. Future updates are expected to look further ahead and reflect improvements in modelling, data, and understanding of Ireland’s changing electricity system.

The CRU will also host an industry workshop in October 2026, where stakeholders, including market participants, will be given an overview of the FNA process, methodology, and key findings, and will have an opportunity to ask questions on the recently published FNA report. The workshop will also help raise wider awareness of the role flexibility can play in the energy system.

As Ireland continues to use more renewable energy, flexibility will be central to making the electricity system work well for homes, businesses, and communities.

W: www.cru.ie